Balkanalysis.com

12/17/2006: Serbian Special Forces Surreptitiously Gathered for Defense of Northern Kosovo

12/17/2006: Serbian Special Forces Surreptitiously Gathered for Defense of Northern Kosovo

(Balkanalysis.com Security & Intelligence Briefs 17)  Residents from the local community in northern, Serbian-inhabited Kosovo, as well as intelligence sources from Macedonia and another Balkan country, indicate that approximately 400 Special Forces soldiers from Serbia and the Republika Srpska have been infiltrated into the Leposavic and Mitrovica municipalities in preparation for the “Second Battle of Kosovo”- the feared repeat of the March 2004 pogroms in which 50,000 Albanian Muslims rioted, expelling over 3,500 Serbs and other minorities, burning hundreds of homes and over 30 churches.

Worsening relations between the Albanians and the UN authorities, highlighted by the Self-Determination protest group’s attempted assault on UN headquarters in Pristina early this month, could break down altogether should final status be delayed much longer. A decision on the province’s future has been put off until January, in a probably futile attempt to influence the outcome of Serbian parliamentary elections.

However, since the West has steadily stated that Kosovo independence is inevitable, there is little likelihood that waiting on final status until after the elections will have any impact at all on whether Serbs vote for the feared Socialists and Radicals or not.

For their part, Serbs in Kosovo are clearly taking precautions. NATO troops, wise to the Serbian strategic initiative of using the Leposavic border crossing as a reinforcement post and weapons channel from Serbia proper, decided to repopulate a closed military base earlier this year in order to eliminate this possibility.

Nevertheless, the Serbs have prepared and according to sources surveyed by Balkanalysis.com, weapons have been hidden in woodlands and fields to be used in case of Albanian attack. Along with the 400 highly trained and battle-hardened Special Forces troops, an additional 5,000-8,000 Kosovo Serbs could be counted on for defense in the case of a new attempted onslaught.

Despite being vastly outnumbered, the 2004 experience shows that even poorly armed Serbs have been able to hold off the Albanians, whose scorched-earth policy was only accomplished in most places then after KFOR troops had forced Serbs to escape, and then failed to defend their abandoned property.

Since in a serious and concerted offensive the Serbs could probably not hold the central and southern enclaves without the staunch assistance of NATO troops - support that was blatantly absent the last time around - the strategy in a future armed showdown will be to hold on to the north at all costs.

Despite the very real potential for future violence as the Kosovo endgame unfolds, however, in our analysis a recent prediction by the analysis firm Stratfor - that an unhinged Serbia could blindly lash out everywhere, seizing territory from Kosovo to Bosnia with the Great Powers helpless to stop it - is so wildly off the mark as to be nother more than shameless propaganda.

While there will most likely be future fireworks over Kosovo, it is indeed highly unlikely that Serbia or the Bosnian Serbs will do anything to risk the ire of the West.

What little they can do for Kosovo Serbs, therefore, will have to be accomplished surreptitiously, by the Special Forces veterans in civilian garb, now blending into Kosovo Serb society and waiting for the big one to come.