Balkanalysis.com

08/09/2006: Baku to Ensure New Balance of Power in Caucasus

08/09/2006: Security & Intelligence Brief: Baku to Ensure New Balance of Power in Caucasus

(Balkanalysis.com Security & Intelligence Brief 10) The August 3 shooting of an Azeri soldier by Armenian forces in the disputed province of Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh in Armenian) has further inflamed public opinion in Azerbaijan, which is making no secret of its plans to dramatically increase its military options in case of an invasion to wrest the mountainous Armenian-majority area away from Yerevan’s sphere of influence.

However, the proximity of the disputed area to the $4-billion Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline would make Azerbaijan’s Western backers nervous in the event of an unpredictable war. Politically speaking, the situation is also in flux. Key player Russia, for example, is no longer so willing to give Yerevan absolute support, in light of Baku’s significant financial and resource-driven clout. And Russia also wants to increase its peacemaker stature in the final settlement negotiations, aware that Western diplomatic participants have less enthusiasm and ability to deal with the situation, with the US and France especially consumed by the Israeli war in Lebanon.

Indeed, the Western role seems to be waning. A recent report from ISN Security Watch noted the potentially dangerous combination of perceived pessimism and inertia from the Minsk Group with that same body’s suggestion for a popular referendum on Nagorno-Karabakh’s final status- something detrimental to Azeri interests.

Further, the report notes the projected increase in the Azeri defense budget- audaciously meant to equal or surpass Armenia’s entire national budget: “military expenditures in Azerbaijan for 2006 were slated to rise to some US$600 million, but President Aliyev said publicly on 31 July that the actual figure would rise to US$700 million.� Crafting this new arsenal is both a shrewd move on the part of the relatively young president, and a means of playing to the people’s national pride. It’s also meant to deliver a not so subtle threat to Yerevan.

Nevertheless, the report suggests, “having a large military - or at least a large defense expenditure program - may serve not so much as a platform for a future war, but rather as a bargaining chip. This strategy would be consistent with Baku’s approach thus far, promising a number of rewards for Yerevan if Nagorno-Karabakh is returned to Azerbaijani control.�

Nevertheless, many believe Armenia would not simply cave in, in the case of a future war. And the powerful Armenian-American lobby, with a supporting role from Greek-Americans, would certainly try to influence lawmakers to criticize or even stymie any unilateral Azeri invasion. Armenian sources say that they would pressure President Bush to re-invoke Article 907 of the Freedom Support Act. The article, suspended but not repealed after Sept. 11, 2001, prohibits direct US aid to Azerbaijan if the latter demonstrates a hostile stance towards Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh.

Nevertheless, in consideration of Baku’s military buildup, it is an open question as to whether any new conflict would end with the same ignominious result for the Azeris. ISN Security Watch quoted an Armenian Foreign Ministry source as saying, “we defeated Azerbaijan in war twice. Do they really want to try again?�

However, other sources, including a Turkish military affairs expert surveyed by Balkanalysis.com, consider this mere bravado. “Russia will not be able to help [Armenia] as they did last time, but Turkey as always will support Azerbaijan,� believes this source. “And when you add the new arms equivalency to come- Armenia could just not cope with a determined Azeri offensive.�