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07/10/2006: Most Wanted Chechen Warlord Basayev Eliminated; Local Boss Kadyrov to Benefit

07/10/2006: Most Wanted Chechen Warlord Basayev Eliminated; Local Boss Kadyrov to Benefit

(Balkanalysis.com Security and Intelligence Brief 6) Russian and world media are reporting today that the most wanted Chechen warlord, Shamil Basayev, has been killed in an overnight operation.

The raid reportedly took place in Ingushetia, a known hotspot for Islamic extremists and a province west of Chechnya, Russian FSB security service chief Nikolai Patrushev told media.

The heavily-bearded terrorist leader was implicated in many fatal attacks on Russian soldiers, and deadliest of all the Beslan school bombing of September 2004 that left over 300 people, mostly children, dead. The attack galvanized the Russian public, which described it as “Russia’s 9/11.” In the aftermath of the atrocities, new Christian-Muslim tensions manifested in the volatile province.

The news of the security services’ success boosted the confidence of Russian President Putin, who is set to host the G8 Summit under scrutiny that is fiercer than ever from the West regarding alleged democracy failings under his tenure.

Claims that Basayev was at the time of his death planning a major attack on the G8 Summit itself have not been immediately confirmed. But the last few weeks of activity in and around Chechnya indicated that something was brewing.

On 4 July, 7 Russian troops were killed and 25 wounded in an attack by Chechen fighters in Avtury, 30 km south of Grozny. According to Itar Tass, it was the most major such attack in over a month.

Finally, two days ago, a group of more than 30 Chechen rebels surrendered. According to Itar-Tass, they had been promised an amnesty by the pro-Moscow Chechen Prime Minister Ramsan Kadyrov, who stated that it was the largest instantaneous surrender in four years.

The hardnosed Kadyrov is known for his connections and influence with the locals, while still remaining loyal to Putin. His father, the previous Chechen leader, was killed by rebels in 2004.

Chechen youth have however rallied to the side of the 29 year-old administrator/militia leader. In June, Reuters reported last month on a youth rally for the premier, whose “…bearded face topped with a Che Guevara style beret scowled down on the march from dozens of posters, from Chechen flags and from the t-shirts of the participants.” The killing of Basayev is sure to raise his stature further.

However, this stature itself is of potential concern to the Kremlin. A source close to the Russian intelligence services told us recently that “Putin would be afraid of letting Kadyrov become too powerful- he is loyal now, but may have his own plans [for Chechnya] if his power continues to grow.”

Indeed, as Reuters reported, Kadyrov will be eligible to run for regional governor - the position held by his late father - next year, when he turns 30.

As a militia commander with autocratic tendencies, Kadyrov’s final plans for Chechnya remain opaque. The future conflict over the war-torn province could eventually, perhaps, see a lessening in its religious dimensions- while still remaining a danger for Moscow, especially if Putin’s eventual successor is weaker than he.