Balkanalysis.com

06/29/2006: Nagorno-Karabakh Resolution Gets New Impetus

06/29/2006: Nagorno-Karabakh Resolution Gets New Impetus

(Balkanalysis.com Security & Intelligence Brief 2) Renewed efforts are being made to end the long-running dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh region - a mountainous border area claimed by Azerbaijan but populated mostly by Armenians, who have enjoyed de facto independence since 1994, after a protracted conflict between the two states.

For years, one peace initiative after another has fizzled out as Armenian and Azeri diplomats, mindful of national sentiment, have not been able to come to an agreement on the future status of the enclave- or even its present one.

However, the simmering international crisis with Iran, and the statements of Russian President Vladimir Putin that Kosovo independence will create a precedent for other frozen conflicts around the world, have brought a new sense of urgency to resolving the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Azerbaijan borders Iran and is a major energy supplier to the West. And vital Western ally Turkey maintains its chronically frosty relationship with Armenia, as it continues to take a protective stance over its ethnic and religious kin in Azerbaijan. The ongoing feud over the Armenian enclave is therefore unhelpful at a time when the US is putting greater and greater strain on its allies over Iran.Now it seems that Azerbaijan, which has for years enjoyed a privileged relationship with the West due to its energy role, is finally going to be asked to make sacrifices. On June 26, the Armenian Foreign Ministry went public with a bilaterally agreed plan that it claimed has been endorsed “for the first time” by the OSCE Minsk Group, a multinational diplomatic effort designed to steer the peace process.

The plan, which envisions that Nagorno-Karabakh will decide its future through a popular referendum, was widely broadcast by local and international media. Quoting Minsk Group Co-chair Matthew Bryza, RFE/RL stated this week that the plan would require an Armenian military pullout and economic assistance before any referendum could be held. Azerbaijan only wants to give the region a “high degree of autonomy” whereas the Armenian residents of the area think otherwise.

Interestingly, some see in the new diplomatic efforts an attempt by the US to undercut the traditional role of Russia as Armenia’s closest ally. According to Georgia’s The Messenger on June 29:

“Bryza, as well as other US officials, hope to put the issue of frozen conflicts in the region on the agenda of G8 summit in St Petersburg in July, while Russian authorities does not approve of the idea.

While Karabakh, Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transdnistria are all striving to be recognized, experts agree that there is a clear reason why Karabakh did not join the union of the rest de facto republics, which was recently formalized at a meeting in the de facto Abkhaz capital of Sokhumi. There is an opinion that while Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transdnistria are oriented to Russia, Karabakh stays oriented to Yerevan, which in turn not only turns for advice to Russia, but also is waiting for the resolution of the conflict with the help of Europe and the United States.”