Balkanalysis.com

Overview

Although relatively small, the Republic of Macedonia is significant for regional issues. This mountainous, largely agricultural nation aspires to join NATO and commence negotiations on membership with the EU as soon as a long-standing dispute with neighboring Greece – over rights to the country’s constitutional name – can be resolved.  In the meantime, Macedonia’s center-right government is attempting to promote the country as an investment and tourism destination, drawing in part on historical nostalgia over the country’s cultural legacy from ancient through medieval times.

The only former Yugoslav republic to break away peacefully in the 1990s, Macedonia was nevertheless gripped by conflict in 2001, when an ethnic Albanian paramilitary force partly based in Kosovo forced international diplomats to broker a peace deal giving more rights and political powers to the country’s minority populations, and especially the 25% Albanian minority. Since then, the situation has been largely peaceful, though diplomats from the US and EU still play a significant role in pressing the country’s major political figures to stay on best behavior. However, Western diplomats have in recent years by the Macedonian government’s spirited defense of its positions, and there is a palpable shift to the east – Turkey, the Gulf and even Russia – visible today.

Orthodoxy Christianity is pre-eminent in Macedonia, though Islam has historic roots from the Ottoman period and is increasingly visible among the country’s ethnic Albanian population. The small Turkish and Muslim minorities are also predominantly Muslim, while a minority of Macedonians profess Catholicism, various Protestant denominations and Judaism.

Outstanding Issues

The ‘name issue’ dispute with Greece; Western diplomatic negative perceptions of poor political dialogue between political parties, and general dislike of the Gruevski government; excessive public-sector hiring; corruption and nepotism in general; inter-ethnic discord and potential for violence; internal challenges to the legitimacy of traditional Islam from foreign-supported local Muslims; emerging role of Turkey as a leader.

Forward Planning: Points of Interest

• Progress, or lack thereof, in name dispute negotiations with Greece, and implications for government stability
• EU and to a lesser extent US dissatisfaction with the Gruevski government, and likely unwillingness to allow accession talks unless a more pliable government comes to power
• Discord within ethnic Albanian electorate over political leadership/ new party opportunities, and unhappiness of Turkish, Bosniak and Macedonian Muslims with ‘Albanianization’ trends targeting them
• Failed October 2011 national census and related potential for inter-ethnic tensions and political instability
• Results, and criticisms, of government’s investment and promotion efforts
• Increased trade with Gulf States, Turkey and Russia; energy corridor participation in post-Greece privatization world
• Transformation of media and journalistic upheaval; mpact of being second base (after Sarajevo) for new Al Jazeera Balkan channel