Balkanalysis.com

Overview

Enjoying both a long history and strategic location bordering Turkey and the Black Sea, Bulgaria is (along with neighboring Romania) the most recent member of the EU. After emerging from a transition period marked by occasional violent acts between mafia groups, the country has successfully repositioned itself as an emerging tourist destination and real estate market for Northern Europeans, though corruption and organized crime remain issues of concern.

Bulgaria takes pride in its history, having existed as a nation-state since the early Middle Ages and, before it, as part of the ancient Thracian kingdom. This legacy has left it with a robust sense of nationalism and a wealth of archeological and architectural riches. The Bulgarian Orthodox Church is the country’s major religious institution, though small minorities of Bulgarian Muslims exist, as do more substantial ethnic Turkish ones- holdovers from the Ottoman period.

Bulgaria today faces unique challenges, such as continuing poverty and a declining birthrate (something that may affect the ethnic make-up of the country and interrelations between ethnic Bulgarians, Turks and Roma). But the country can also count on unique opportunities: its maritime placement and historic relationship with Russia are balanced by NATO and EU membership, making it a coveted strategic partner. However, the 2011 opposition by some EU members to extend Schengen Zone membership to Bulgaria and Romania has fed public disapproval with the EU.

Outstanding Issues

Relations with the EU over Schengen Zone membership, and also with Turkey and the Turkish minority in the country; dealings with international energy consortia and Russia, Greece, and Macedonia on various potential energy projects, including opposition to the Bourgas- Alexandroupoli pipeline plan; corruption in politics and business, and some organized crime concerns.

Forward Planning: Points of Interest

• Developments in the energy sector, including investment in existing nuclear infrastructure and participation (or non-participation) in transnational oil pipeline routes such as Burgas-Alexandroupoli and AMBO
• Potential effects on Bulgarian fiscal policy and economic capacity stemming from the European debt crisis
• Media and political discourse relating to the country’s perceived positioning vis-a-vis Russia and the West
• The character of governmental foreign policy aspirations to play a role in the region, especially with issues involving neighboring states
• EU relations, including full reform implementation and Schengen Zone exclusion vis-a-vis public opinion of the bloc