Balkanalysis.com

By Nese Mesutoglu

After long and difficult negotiations, the European Union has agreed that accession talks can finally begin next year for Turkey.

But what do average Turks think about the developments? A survey of Turks in Istanbul today showed general happiness with the prospect of EU membership, but also reservations and doubts.As everyone knows, the process will take a long time. EU leaders forecast say decade of negotiations, and statements by French President Chirac and others – that popular referendums might finally decide Turkey’s fate – have left Turks with little reason to expect any sudden changes. According to Ekin İzat, a showroom director in Turkey’s commercial capital, “what’s happened [with the negotiations] is as I had expected. But the process will go on for a long time. Nothing will really change for us.”

Recognizing the deep fears many Europeans have of Turkey for religious and cultural reasons, İzat admitted that “still, Turkish people can’t take it [EU membership] too seriously… it’s difficult for European countries. They will be discussing it for a long time.”

Europe fears a flood of immigrants from Turkey, should the country join the EU. However, this is not realistic, considering the strong family ties existing in the country. Unless severe economic exigencies are in play, most Turkish people would prefer to live close to their relatives.

A “solution” for certain Western countries is to grant Turkey some kind of privileged status, but not full membership. The Turkish government has constantly refused such a possibility, arguing that only full membership will be acceptable. Yet some Turks are ambivalent about the end result.

Ender Mucukoğlu, manager at an Istanbul patisserie, believes that “the EU won’t agree to permit us to have full membership. They will divert us. The EU uses Turkey as a market… and they will try to keep it that way.”

However, others are more positive. Says Tahsin Kırklaroğlu, a grocer: “I’m happy with the result. I lived for 15 years in Germany, which has 2 million Turkish people. They have already accepted 4 million Turkish people in Europe.”

Because of his long experience, Kırklaroğlu also understands the European point of view. “The question isn’t if the EU can agree for Turkey’s membership,” he says. “The question is if the Turkish people can accommodate themselves to European culture. Can we have their vision, can we adopt democracy as they do?”

To achieve this vision, more time is required. Turkish society won’t change overnight. Ali Yavuz, an advertising executive, believes that “the date given for negotiations for EU membership may be too early for us. We need time. Now, they will have the opportunity to give us the red light.”

The Turkish people are able to understand, even if they don’t agree with, Europe’s fears. Hande Apa, an English teacher in Istanbul, believes that “…this is normal. Turkey is a big, poor and Muslim country with a low education level.”

Yet pointing out the high turnout of journalists from Arabic country at the December 17^th EU summit, Apa says that “religion can be an advantage.” The unique relation between religion and the state existing in the Turkish Republic has been highlighted by policy experts, such as Suat Kiniklioğlu of the Ankara Center for Turkish Policy Studies (ANKAM), who earlier this week wrote that:

“…for Turks, accommodating a predominantly Islamic population within a secular political order that allows critical universal values to coexist has become a source of pride but also a great responsibility.

Turks are conscious of the fact that their model is intensely discussed by Muslims and non-Muslims throughout the globe. In this respect, the Turkish republic continues to be a great experiment that cannot be allowed to fail. Turkey’s friends and allies share an equal responsibility in this great experiment. It is here that the issue of EU membership matters the most.”

Of course, there are some Turks who oppose the idea of EU membership altogether, chiefly from the rural areas of eastern Turkey. They fear the imposition of foreign customs and laws and even that Europe desires the break-up of the country. But in cosmopolitan Istanbul, the only city in the world that stretches across two continents, most are pro-European.

Nevertheless, even for Istanbul people there is a limit to the amount of appeasement Turkey’s government should make to the EU. Cyprus, especially, remains an emotional issue. The Dutch, current holders of the rotating EU presidency, have been accused of underestimating the importance of the issue in negotiations.

We can’t give up Cyprus without any winnings,” says Hande Apa. “In 1974 [the year Turkey invaded the island] I was 8 years old. Because of the Cyprus military operation I lived through crises and terror.”

Greek commentators have voiced displeasure this week at what they call Turkish “arrogance” over its refusal to recognize the Republic of Cyprus. As an official EU member, Greek Cyprus deserves respect from any country wishing to join the EU, the Greeks believe.

In this light, the Turkish negotiators surprised many on Friday. According to the BBC, the “breakthrough” in negotiations came with the new Turkish promise “…to sign an accord extending its customs union to the 10 new EU members, including Cyprus. This must be done before the proposed start date for talks of 3 October next year, EU diplomats said.”

While the BBC stated that this means an “effective recognition to the Greek Cypriot government,” PM Erdogan declared that it does not mean a “formal” recognition.

An editorial in Athens’ Kathimerini today added that this represents a crisis not only for Turkey, Greece and Cyprus but primarily for the EU itself: “…the refusal by a candidate state to recognize an already existing member constitutes an institutional anomaly that not only tarnishes the image of Nicosia but, most strikingly, the image of the EU itself.”

Nevertheless, Europe continues to underestimate the depth of feeling shared by the otherwise pro-Western Turkish majority. “Why should we recognize South Cyprus?” asks Hande Apa, echoing the views of many Turks. “They must recognize North Cyprus. This is democracy.” This popular public sentiment explains why PM Erdogan could not easily give concessions to the EU over Cyprus this Friday.

Nese Mesutoglu is a journalist with the Turkish daily Sabah.