Balkanalysis.com

Greece, Turkey and Balkan Security: Interview with John M. Nomikos

In the following interview for Balkanalysis.com, Director of the Athens-based Research Institute for European and American Studies ), John M. Nomikos gives his views on several topics of interest for Southeast European and Balkan affairs, including Turkey and the EU, Balkan security, and a recent defense pact between Greece and Serbia.

Relations with Turkey and the EU

Q: How do you view the ongoing Turkey-EU negotiations? Will Turkey eventually enter the European as a full-fledged member someday, or do you see it remaining excluded indefinitely?

A: On October 3, 2005, the European Union declared its intent to begin membership talks with Turkey. The European declaration which received Ankara’s blessings made clear that Turkey would be first required to promote democracy, the rule of law and respect for human rights. Analysts from various EU member states pointed out that these membership talks with Turkey, launched a year ago, have in effect ground to a halt. Only one of the 33 “chapters� that Turkey must negotiate with the EU (on science and technology) has been closed.

Q:Are there other chapters that may be closed relatively quickly, according to your estimates? If so what are they? And what are the most difficult chapters to close?

A: Recently, European Enlargement Commissioner Ollie Rehn emphasized “that Turkey has to open its air and sea ports to craft flying the flag of the internationally recognized Republic of Cyprus, whose Greek Cypriot government controls the south of the island, despite a customs deal with all EU members.� Otherwise, a pause in EU-Turkey negotiations would be wise, until Turkey respects the rights of all EU member states.

Q: It was Greece which, in 1999, put aside its traditional animosities with Turkey in the wake of their mutual aid after the Izmir and Athens earthquakes, to allow negotiations with the EU to start. Now they had to deal with the issue rather than continue to blame Athens for blocking progress. In light of this showdown over Cypriot ports, is it likely that Greece will continue to play the most constructive role or are other EU states now likely to surpass it in supporting Turkish membership?

A: Greece continues to play a constructive role regarding Turkish negotiations with the European Commission. However, every candidate member for EU, such as Turkey, needs to go through several structural steps before becoming an official member. To this rule, Turkey is not an exception and Greece behaves according to the regulations applicable to all candidates entering the European Union.

Cooperative Intelligence Networks and Regional Stability

Q: Today, do you see any possible ways for private interested parties, organizations such as yours, to promote cooperation among the Balkan states against organized crime, financing of terrorist groups, and the spread of WMD? For example, would it some sort of an Open Source Intelligence Network (OSINT) be a good idea, or even a possible one?

A: The region of Southeast Europe enters the 21st century faced with at least the same number of problem as it did in 1991, when the Cold War ended. And the inability of the international community to predict events and initiate a timely reaction towards the break-up of the Yugoslavia certainly contributed to the turmoil in the Balkan region. So to return to the question; yes. This would be a good thing.

The Research Institute for European and American Studies (RIEAS) would like to participate in the creation of a public and cooperative Balkan Open Source (OSINT) intelligence research network – collecting facts, rather than opinions – which would act as a forum for exchanging information regarding the prevention of potential crises (organized crime, financing of terrorism, spread of WMD) in the region. Such a network could become a substantial resource for further development. Via those specialized networks emphasizing academic studies of intelligence on Southeast Europe, a contribution would be made to discovering and elaborating potential threats. Balkan states so far neither possess enough independent, and this word is important, think-tanks for intelligence and security studies – nor do they have academic centers that provide such expertise to the law-policy and decision-making authorities at the state level.

Q: How do you see this contribution as helping regional governments?

A: In the future, in our view, one of the most important tasks of the international community, and of course Balkan governments, is going to be to develop and maintain a comprehensive strategy for the long-term stabilization of the Balkan Peninsula. Problems in the Balkan states are complex, chronic and recurring, and therefore a thorough analysis as well as appropriate understanding is required before solutions can be proposed. At present, the international offerings are not particularly independent of outside influence, whereas the regional governments are beset by their own internal divisions and politicized “intelligence.� Therefore an independent, more objective voice is needed.

Q: Two concerns come to mind, regarding the essential value given to intelligence. For one, private companies will pay a lot for it. Also, governments tend to take a view that everything should be “classified.� By providing free and open intelligence, therefore, might you run into any problems from either of these monopolistic forces? What will be their reaction?

A: Most of the private companies in USA, and Western Europe have already Open Source Intelligence units and focused particularly on business strategic information, which will enhance the future planning of their enterprises. At the same time, many state intelligence services have begun to initiate Open Sources Intelligence Departments by collecting information from various sources and processed to the analysts for further evaluation. I do not think that there is an OSINT competition between private companies and state intelligence services. Furthermore, many intelligence services hire private companies (as supplementary to their work) that produce advanced OSINT software to cooperate with them.

Q: Do you think that we need a Balkan Response Network on countering the financing for terrorism in the Balkan Peninsula? How could Balkan governments stop money laundry which financing terrorism groups in the Balkan region?

A: The continuous terrorist attacks that continue to happen since the 9/11 attacks on United States requires heightened awareness on the importance of disrupting terrorist financial networks within the financial community in the Balkan states. To be successful a Balkan Response Network in countering terrorism infiltration into the banking system, substantial financial intelligence is required among the Balkan states. With the increasing importance of financial intelligence and role of financial institutions, the countering of financing for terrorism deserves specialization of its own. Therefore, I think that establishing a Balkan Response Network on countering financial terrorism is a necessity for the future.

New Balkan Defense Alliances

Q: How do you assess the latest defense agreement between Greece and Serbia?

A: I am confident that the Greek-Serbian defense relations are positive for regional stability and mean the start of a new level of substantial cooperation. Greek Defense Minister Evangelos Meimarakis visited Serbia not long ago, and in his meetings focused on bilateral defense cooperation. In addition, a new and broader defense agreement was signed by Greece, a NATO country and EU member, and Serbia, which is aspiring to join these institutions. The agreement gives special emphasis to military training and cooperation between training centers for peace operations in Belgrade, Serbia and Kilkis, Greece, while the Greek minister assured his Serbian counterpart that the Greek government supports Serbia’s Euro-Atlantic prospect. Furthermore, Greece will continue to back Serbia’s accession into the NATO Partnership for Peace initiative at the next NATO Summit to take place in Riga, Latvia.

Q: Turkey and Albania already have strong defense cooperation, perhaps through NATO channels, which has in the past been feared by Athens as an east-west “squeezing� pressure mechanism. How will this dynamic be enhanced by the independence of Kosovo?

A: I do believe that post-Cold War defense cooperation between Albania and Turkey was achievable only within the framework of NATO and through the agreement of the most important member states. Albanian and Turkish bilateral defense cooperation afterwards has also evolved within the framework of NATO. However, the Greek-Serbian defense cooperation as well as the recent upgrade in Serbian-Israeli relations will function as stability factors in the event of a conflict over Kosovo.