Balkanalysis.com

One of the most dramatic events in the modern Balkans may go down very soon. But will it be a success- and if so, for whom?

Hague Tribunal prosecutor Carla Del Ponte has been angered by Serbia’s failure to capture and extradite war crimes suspects Ratko Mladic and Radovan Karadzic. This, compounded by the mysterious death of trophy captive Slobodan Milosevic in March, has put Del Ponte perilously close to being deprived of the glory she has sought for so long. For despite many convictions, the failure to get the “big two” (convicted in absentia, no trial required) is an open sore for the prosecution, which is living on borrowed time.

Numerous critics have called for the Hague to be reined in owing to its contradictory treatment of indictees (something that depends on their ethnicity and their political use value). And Russia is now putting increasing pressure on the tribunal to shut its doors for good.

However, it looks like the Hague and Carla are not going to go down without a fight. On June 8, the Jurist quoted an obviously disturbed Del Ponte as saying that she has “no choice but to seek from the [UN Security] Council the powers to arrest fugitives where ever they are and to allocate to my Office the necessary resources for this. Ultimately, I do not see any other way for the ICTY to fulfill its mandate and satisfy the legitimate expectations the victims placed into the United Nations.”

The comments had been made at a Security Council meeting one day earlier, Wednesday. However, a source with close connections to the Hague told Balkanalysis.com that this announced “request” was already by that time a done deal- one that had been decided several days earlier:

“In the last closed-door session, she requested extraordinary powers to arrest both Radovan and Ratko by the Tribunal itself. This means that she can go over the border into Serbia and Bosnia with a special team and physically arrest both, without the countries she enters being able to do anything.”

In her Wednesday speech, Del Ponte gave away what this is all really about when she said that any failure to capture the two suspects would “represent a terrible blow not only to the success or failure of the Tribunal, but to the future of international justice as a whole.”

Indeed. As anyone who has followed the Hague’s theatrics for any length of time can understand, the ongoing drama is not really about the specific deeds of the two fugitives, but about the concept of international justice- a concept that is inextricably intertwined with the future of international tribunals in general and indeed, of the United Nations itself. In reality, Karadzic and Mladic are bit pieces in a high-stakes game that involves billions of dollars in funding, career glorification, and international power politics.

Seeming as it did almost like a plea, Del Ponte’s “request” was cunningly made to conceal the fact that the operation had already been finalized and that everyone — including the Russians — had signed off on it. As our source notes, “she wouldn’t present a request if it wouldn’t have an excellent chance of making it. Nobody does that with the [Security Council]. Therefore the organization of such capturing has been prepared in advance.”

The only thing that had to be ironed out, apparently, was the issue of funding for the Hague’s personal paramilitary expedition. When funding was guaranteed by the Security Council, Del Ponte was given the all-clear for invading Serbia, Montenegro and the Republika Srpska.

It is not clear how large the commando force will be; Del Ponte, lawyer turned general, will probably decide this together with NATO and EU military officials, based on their perceived need. However, it is clear that Del Ponte, as the supreme guardian of the globalist system, will be able to select from a full arsenal of weaponry, and receive whatever manpower she desires. It pushes incredulity to think that Del Ponte has never dreamed of a finish like this.

Who will comprise the Hague’s A-Team? According to our source, “it’ll be a UN task force doing the arrest (from various nations). They are already lined up. They also know exactly where the two [Karadzic and Mladic] are.” However, the source would not specify further the location (or more probably, locations) of the two fugitives.

Montenegro, where Milo Djukanovic’s newly independent regime could be shaken unless the fugitive issue disappears may come under scrutiny. In a BBC report of Feb. 21, “recent intelligence reports” were cited as claiming that Karadzic can be found “in the remote mountains of northwest Montenegro, not far from his home town of Niksic.” However, today’s EU Observer article on Del Ponte’s request states simply that “Mr Karadzic is suspected of being in Bosnia and Mr Mladic is allegedly hiding in Serbia.”

However, it is not likely that things will go as easily as the Hague expects. Both men are being protected by a fiercely loyal network of armed guards, and have been sheltered by local populations hostile to Western interventionists and the war crimes tribunal. So while the Hague is apparently free to send in heavily-armed teams to capture the fugitives, they will also be risking casualties- soldiers who could be the first people to die in the jihad for international justice. “They died for the Hague’s budget,’ their tombs will no doubt read.

The showdown will likely come in remote, rugged terrain known far better by the defenders than by the attackers. Plus, the Hague cannot go and pull a Zarqawi by dropping bombs on “safe houses,’ because Del Ponte wants the men alive. Still, it is highly likely that in such a difficult operation she could wind up with three Milosevices — that is, two additional non-testifying corpses — which would be a rather deflating finale to the whole long ordeal at the Hague.

Nevertheless, our source believes that “Carla will do it, it will come as a complete surprise, the Serbs cannot and will not resist, neither will any private guards, and yes it will be successful.”

This prediction remains to be seen. For any number of reasons, the operation could be cancelled, postponed, sabotaged or so on. In the worst-case scenario, a heavy-handed UN/Hague mercenary force makes an overwhelming show of force, in the process killing innocent women and children. Such “collateral damage” in the hunt to see justice fulfilled through violence would be totally unjustifiable, and could in fact deliver the knockout blow to the Hague it has so badly needed for so long.

There are many explanations one can make for the unnecessary loss of life in a military engagement; defending one’s homeland, flag or family tend to be the easiest to accept. If innocent civilians die to satiate Carla Del Ponte’s bloodlust, on the other hand, the prosecutor’s prediction will be fulfilled. Because it will then become abundantly clear that, indeed, no one is safe from the fulfillment of international justice.