Kondovo: If Government Won’t Do It, Will MacedoniaÃs People Defend Themselves?
An exasperated recent article from Macedonian professor Dr. Ljubomir Cuculovski asks whether the current standoff in Kondovo represents a mere rerun of the situation in Tanusevci, 2001, the initial wintertime outburst of violence that resulted in a war. There are indeed many similarities. However, there is one big difference: location. While Tanusevci is a remote border hamlet, Kondovo is a village in striking range of Skopje. In 2001, the remoteness of the former was a big argument in favor of the case for restraint. In December 2004, with the fourth anniversary of the Tanuscevsi treachery little over a month away, defenders of the status quo and international community policy will have a tougher time of convincing the people that restraint is a sane option.It will be particularly interesting to see how the United States, with its policy of “pre-emptive strikes” aimed at locations on the other side of the globe, will direct the Macedonians to react in a situation where war has practically been declared from locations on the other side of the capital city.
How, Macedonian commentators are asking, could the government have let such a buildup go on without doing anything? Our information suggests that incoming PM Vlade Buchkovski, the Macedonian Minister of Defense, knew very well about the situation for months, because his own analysts were feeding him detailed reports, but that he could do nothing for fear of upsetting Macedonia’s “delicate ethnic balance.” So once again, just as with the run-up to the 2001 war, the government begged ignorance and minimized the threat in its iterations.
However, perceiving the utter inability of their government to act, the mid-level and rank-and-file among the security services are starting to become more and more disillusioned. Indeed, why continue to do a difficult and poor-paying job for a state that cannot even protect its own people? If even patriotism is betrayed, then what’s the point?
Once again, you heard it here first: informal Macedonian paramilitary units last used in 2001 have in recent weeks been regrouping as “neighborhood defense groups,” in areas that fall within the range of Kondovo. If the government proves unable to control the situation, and the Albanians choose to bring on another unjustified war, the movement will go nationwide.
And so if war comes again to Macedonia, it will not be a simple repetition of 2001, because Macedonians realize more than ever that it will be a fight for their very survival. The government’s failure to eradicate the cancer of Albanian separatism in Tanuscevsi in 2001 has only allowed the disease to fester and spread. Now, there are only two options for the people, if confronted with a government and international community reluctant to act: either to be totally apathetic and emigrate or, to bypass these untrustworthy authorities and defend themselves.
The next few months will show whether those foreign interventionists who were disappointed to not get a second Bosnia in Macedonia will be rewarded this time around with new, CV-building bloodshed.