Balkanalysis.com

Every so often, a protest is held against the government in one of Europe’s restive “transition” countries. On the off-chance that the CIA is not behind the event, the mass media is at a loss for how to describe it. And so, when protests aren’t considered important enough to be portrayed as say, a triumph of democracy over nationalism in Belgrade, or a revolution of roses in Tbilisi, we’re generally handed turgid and bland compressions of stats and sound bytes, so that rather complex events can be understood without too much trouble.

Well, there were certainly no let-downs in this regards when it came to the mass media’s portrayal of last night’s decentralization protest in Skopje- an event that was definitely not sponsored by Washington.And so, in a deliberate attempt to shed light on ground where few seem really interested in treading, we are happy to provide here the most detailed account and assessment to date of the Skopje protest, in all that it was and was not.

Theme of Presence and Absence

One of the most interesting themes for assessing the whole affair, and one which helps explain a lot about the motivations of the various actors, is that of presence and absence- in short, who was there and who wasn’t, and why.

One of the most interesting developments early on was the subdued but enthusiastic cries of “Ljub-cho, Ljub-cho!” that came from one large group of flag-waving protesters. Former prime minister Ljubcho Georgievski has created great political upheaval in the past couple of months, first leaving the country in a challenge to his successor at the VMRO party helm, Nikola Gruevski, and then returning with a pledge to form a new opposition party of his own. This confusing development has caused a fracture within the VMRO, and created a sort of membership vacuum. The party’s younger members, especially, are divided over which side to join; Gruevski has managed to retain control of the “legitimate” party, but Georgievski – more of a natural leader – has retained a certain charisma, especially with the young. However, there is always the possibility that the SDSM government will have him arrested if he outlives his current usefulness as a divider, making him not really a safe bet.

When it became clear from the assembled speakers on the stage that Georgievski was not going to be included, the chanting died out. The former prime minister confirmed today that he hadn’t been invited to the event, “…and when you’re not invited to something, you should not go.”

Considering that Nikola Gruevski was the final speaker, and came out to a brief sort of music, dry ice ‘n’ flares show, it would be hard to argue that this protest was not in some way meant to be a thumping affirmation of his leadership. The Macedonian tabloid Vest complained today that Gruevski had hijacked the event for his own purposes, noting that the loudspeakers were pumping out his party’s theme song and that he spoke for much longer than the preceding speakers (though their estimation of a 45-minute speech seems a bit excessive to our recollection). Yet while he often had to look down at his text, the famously indecisive party chief actually roared a few times while declaring,

“…they can take everything, but they can’t take Macedonia from us. They didn’t want to hear the voice of the people in the last forty-one [municipal] referendums. They didn’t want to listen to the people, the intellectuals, the Macedonian Orthodox Church, the Macedonian Academy of Sciences and Arts, the NGOs. They want to do something that nobody in Macedonia wants- they want to separate our country. But the people didn’t give them a mandate for that. And how will we make a multiethnic society if the Government tries to separate us into groups? How will Macedonians and Albanians be friends if they go to different schools, different kindergartens?”

VMRO chief Gruevski on the podium

Other Speakers

Not only politicians were represented among the speakers, however. Businessmen, singers, academics and more were also included. The event was kicked off by world-famous opera singer Boris Trajanov, who belted out the Macedonian national anthem with the help of the crowd. Trajanov stated his reason for being there as love of country rather than dislike of the government. “…I rely don’t care for parties,” he said, “but I care so much for Macedonia… only in Macedonia do I feel at home. And that’s why we will say to the government that they will not take away our homeland.”

Brought out of retirement to speak first was Nikola Kljusev, Macedonia’s first prime minister under the transitional post-Yugoslav “expert government.” Although the old man’s voice was shaky at times, there was no mistaking his strong anti-Crvenkovski position: “…we have a president who tries to betray his own people. Macedonia doesn’t deserve a president like Branko.”

Next up was Ljubisav Ivanov-Zingo, owner of Sitel TV and a member of the Socialist Party, which is part of the so-called “Third Way” opposition block (together with the Democratic Union and Democratic Alternative parties).

While Ivanov-Zingo delivered the same sort of speech, public attention seemed less riveted. “He always says the same things,” muttered one middle-aged woman at the protest. The same could have been said for virtually all of the speakers, and occasionally was.

This paucity of fresh ideas actually accounts for a lot of the frustrations facing the Macedonian nationalistic movement, both now and in the past, and means that galvanizing reactions to perceived coercive slights is the tactic most often used to rile the crowd. Thus the M.C.’s announcement that scores of buses from other towns were being stopped on the outskirts of Skopje by police searches, “…just to stop them from being on time” for the event.

Two other less than inspiring speakers, Pavle Trajanov of the Democratic Union and Democratic Alternative’s Vasil Tupurkovski, also orated at length. The former again referred to the previous 41 referendums held by individual municipalities against the government’s plans for them, saying, “…they can’t separate Macedonia. They don’t have the mandate for that.”

Tupurkovski has also been on the scene for quite some time. This expert in international law became infamous for officially recognizing Taiwan in 1999, an event which expedited the infiltration of Macedonia’s borders by Albanian paramilitaries from Kosovo when China vetoed the extension of the UNPROFOR policing mission. According to him, the present government “…isn’t trying to make a multiethnic society, but only a bi-national state.”

Although Macedonians
have had more than enough of such politicians, who want to pass all the blame for the current situation on their enemies while conveniently ignoring how the current situation may have come about, there is still a love-hate sentiment visible.

This could be detected in the remarks of the old woman who heckled, “…oh, Vasil, we know you so very well, but still about this you are completely right!”

Vasil Tupurkovski lays it all on the line for the protest crowd

An interesting choice for speaker was Ljubco Nikolovski-Fufo, a former candidate for major of Skopje and owner of Dal Met Fu, the downtown hotel/restaurant wildly popular with the internationals. Rumors are that he will probably run again this fall, against the incumbent mayor, the government-allied Risto Penov. (The M.C. made a point of noting Penov’s absence). Yet could taking a strong nationalistic stance backfire for the businessman?

Leader of the Liberal Party Stojan Andov also spoke, making pointed references to Defense Minister Vlado Buchkovski’s exodus from Struga last week. “…I want to tell Buchkovski that he doesn’t need so many police here now,” cracked Andov, referring to the huge cordons of armed officers flanking the parliament. “We are honest people and not hooligans as he said of the people in Struga. Buchkovski is not here, so we don’t need police.” Those in the crowd waving signs comparing Buchkovski to Jean-Claude Van Damme, in virtue of his escape by helicopter, were delighted.

Like the other speakers, Andov made hay of the fact that President Crvenkovski was at the time of the protest in Brussels, “where he is safe.” Thus a clear tactic of the opposition speakers was to portray the sitting government as estranged from the people: Buchkovski, with references to his airlift out of an outraged Struga, Branko, with references to Brussels reifying his tendency to enjoy more rarified company whenever possible.

The theme was sounded again in a letter penned by Gjiorgi Marjanovic, the “crazy professor” from the Faculty of Law celebrated for his outspokenness. Marjanovic, also a member of the League for Democracy, apologized for not being able to attend in person, condemning the government coalition in his letter as “the successors of the Communists and the Ballists.”

Perhaps the most reasoned argument of the night, the professor’s also won the most laughs. Speaking of the SDSM-led government, Marjanovic cracked, “…don’t let them scare us with words that if we don’t do this [decentralization] we will not go into Europe. In any case Europe doesn’t like us.”

Considering that the entire referendum initiative to collect 150,000 signatures was started by the World Macedonian Congress, it was fitting that its leader, Todor Petrov, speak. He brought up the emotional issues related to the 2001 war, including the continuing inability of Macedonian refugees to return to their homes in Albanian-majority villages, not to mention the inability of Roma refugees from Kosovo to safely return to their homes, and linked them to the most recent indignity in Struga. Petrov told us at the end of the event that the Congress has already solicited 90,000 out of the necessary 150,000 signatures for a referendum. And so it looks like the government is indeed heading for a train wreck with the opposition and the Albanian DUI.

Activist Todor Petrov is well on his way to collecting the 150,000 signatures necessary to force a referendum

The People Speak- Or Not

The words that passed across the lips of the speakers most often was, as could be expected, “the people.” But judging from the press reports that have up to now appeared, does anyone care what the people actually think?

…Not the Western media! Here are the totals:

RFE/RL makes brief quotes from speakers Andov and Gruevski, and relies for its formidable final analysis on- IWPR’s Ana Petruseva. AFP quotes the Interior Ministry Spokesman Goran Pavlovski, Boris Kondarko and a random DPA official. One World quotes Gruevski. SBS Australia quotes Kondarko and Andov. And the BBC , setting the standard for all the rest, quotes no one- but their man in Skopje.

In other words, though they all mentioned a turnout of anywhere from 10-30,000 people, the mass media saw no need to actually talk to any of these people, which makes one wonder whether they were even there. Or, more likely, they just saw little need in asking the Macedonians for their opinion, since it obviously counts for so little anyway these days.

That said, one would assume that the Macedonian media outlets would do a better job of covering the event. Yet while they certainly quoted more of the speakers, they (the textual media, at least) showed a similar disinterest for the proletariat.

Dnevnik quoted only Trajanov; MT Net quoted Gruevski, Tupurkovski, Ivanov-Zingo, Petrov and Stojan Andov; and A1, in its internet offering, quoted Gruevski, Andov, Tupurkovski, Trajanov, one unnamed female crowd member, and Gulistana Markovska of VMRO. The other media sources had only indirect coverage of the event at our time of going to print.

Taking the Pulse of the Proletariat

So it seems that it has been left up to us to relay something of what those 10-30,000 protesters were thinking. What follows is a brief survey of people conducted at random.

Ljubco, a 50 year-old actor, stated his optimism about the protest and the referendum drive in general. “I think that this meeting has been very good, and I hope that things will change, especially after the referendum. We just want the government to open its eyes and to think a little bit for Macedonia, not only for its interests.”

A young man who only wanted to be identified as a ‘citizen of Macedonia’ added that he was “sure” the referendum would end in success. “This decentralization doesn’t have to happen. It is too dangerous for Macedonia to do it this way. But still I believe that everything will finish well for Macedonia, because the people will not give up on their own country.”

For Kosta, a 24 year-old student from Skopje, concerns over his future led him to protest: “I am here because I want to stay here, to live and to work in my country. And nobody can sell Macedonia in our name. This is a very big and historic moment for Macedonia. We have to be strong and not let some small group of people who have power at this moment, to shape our destiny without asking us.”

For Katerina, a 30 year-old woman from Bitola, the government’s proposal for decentralization was a “ridiculous” one:

“…everybody has to get out on the street, and remind them that they must ask the people before doing that. I think that here we have more than 30,000 people, and if that doesn’t mean anything to this government, than they just have to leave. If they don’t know how to do their job, this country still has many
other people who are honest and who know how to do their job.”

Participants like Katerina traveled a considerable distance to make it for the rally. Loudest of all, because of the heated recent events there were the denizens of Struga who attended. But there could also be heard voices from as far away as Strumica, Kriva Palanka, Bitola, Negotino, and elsewhere.

Branko, a young man from Veles, questioned the government’s apparent belief that “…the people will not have any reaction to their terrible [decentralization] proposal.” With a warning that would make every democratic hair on George Bush’s scalp stand on end, Branko added that, “I want to tell them that we give them power, and they are responsible in front the people.”

The crowd with its flags and provocative signs

Ivan, a 29 year-old from the dusty agricultural town of Kavadarci, said:

“I came here tonight because I want somehow to help this country. Our problem is that we don’t have real people in the real positions. This government is so arrogant, and they close themselves in a tight circle, and nobody can talk with them. I don’t hate Albanians. The problem is that some small group of people wants to make us enemies.”

While the protest saw representation from all ages, there were quite visibly a large number of older patriots. One such individual was Spaska, a 60 year-old woman from Skopje. “I came here in the pouring rain to stop them [the government] from doing crazy things,” she stated, speaking no doubt for many by saying,

“…after so many centuries, we finally have our state, and for somebody to try to destroy Macedonia now, it cannot happen. We should be proud of our history, our culture, and our young people.”

In the current situation of economic torpor and political drift, Spaska continued, young people are leaving the country in droves. “I am old, it’s not so important for me,” she said, “but the next generation will have real problems if they make this decentralization.”

Considering also that there was a reasonable turnout from young people, it seemed reasonable to ask them what motivated them. Aside from the usual party hooligans just out to try and find something to fight with, we found other more interesting respondents. Marina, a 20 year-old student from Skopje, said that while the government might not heed the calls to halt the decentralization, “I still believe that everything will be OK for Macedonia in the end.” Another young woman from the city, Natasha, felt that she “had” to come to give her support for the people opposing the decentralization, and to force the government “to see that they made a mistake, and don’t have the people’s support.”

In contradiction to the belief of young hooligans who tend to adopt a more or less racist platform, Lepa, a 47 year-old woman from Skopje averred,

“the Albanians are not guilty for this. They just take what we have given them. But very big and dirty games are behind this decentralization. I will tell you honestly. In the last presidential elections I voted for Branko [Crvenkovski]. And now I am ashamed of that. I didn’t expect that he could do what he has done. I am disappointed completely, but we will defend Macedonia still.”

Yet Radmila, an elderly woman from the Skopje village of Radishani, was disconsolate. “I’m living in an Albanian neighborhood,” she cried, “and some of them make problems for me all the time. They always start a conversation with me by saying, ‘you know, Macedonia will disappear from the face of the earth in a few years, so you should consider moving.’ Imagine what will be their reaction if the government wins this decentralization! I really don’t know what to do,” wept the old woman.

The Impact of- Alcohol

However, in addition to emotive speeches, the weather, and pre-conceived notions, let’s not forget the role of other determining factors, such as time and alcohol. When asked how to account for the yobs blasting away on plastic horns, naked save for flags, face paint and beer, a bemused policeman replied, “well, they’ve been sitting on a bus for 3 hours from Struga, so they’ve had plenty of time to get wasted.”

Of course, a serious matter like drinking could not left up to the young alone. Scores of men and women of more and less advanced age were seen clasping on to cans of Skopsko, or even plastic 1.5 liter bottles of Bitolsko.

Some protestors chose to live out the immortal words of Motley Crue’s Vince Neil: “I’m just lookin’ for another good time”

While demonstrations of Slavic nationalism tend to resemble something between a Willy Nelson concert and a homebrewers’ convention, more menacing behavior was augured by the young thugs who became heatedly disappointed when they failed to antagonize the police into reacting. It was extraordinary to note that every window in the parliament had been covered, even though the building itself was far out of range of the protesters. Lines of police three-deep maintained a generous distance between the protestors and the parliament. To their credit, they barely flinched under the half-hearted barrage of plastic bottles thrown, and after 15 minutes of failed provocation, the young toughs dispersed in disgust into the wet Skopje night.

The police could thus breathe a collective sigh of relief; the protest was over, with no damage done. However, there was still one small matter of concern. As we went to go, passing along the front of the cordon, we were stopped by a bulky policeman in the front of the row. Whatever could be the problem, ociffer?

“Uh… you’re not going to publish that photo, are you?” he said sheepishly. We assured him that no, the “smoking gun” shot of the orange juice-imbibing cop would stay off of the internet: all’s well that ends well.

The police kept a close eye on things, but were never really threatened

A Cafй Epitaph

After everything wound down, and even the final failed hooligans scuffled off into the drizzly darkness, fast food vendors and cafй owners enjoyed a brisk business. In one conspicuous, well-lit sweet shop, a table of SDSM insiders was gloomily gathered. Their concern was not so much that they feared the opposition had made a big gain through the rally, but that the event’s very existence was symptomatic of a real problem, and one that is now inspiring a certain nihilism.

“What do they think?” fumed one thirty-something young man, referring to the opposition. “Do they think they have some better solutions to this mess?”

A woman across from him, playing devil’s advocate, reminded that real solutions weren’t essential; so long as the opposition could convince the electorate they had them, the SDSM was in trouble in the next elections.

“Why don’t the people understand,” he continued, lost in his own cloud of thought, “that the danger is not in decentralization, but in avoiding it? The EU and NATO will safeguard Macedonia’s existence once we implement it. It won’t even be an issue. But we won’t be accepted into those groups until we do it.”

This is precisely the sort of argument being heard all over Skopje these days. The frustrated SDSM technocrats and their supporters apparently do
believe that if the people just let them alone to implement whatever it is that Brussels requests, the cure will be both relatively quick as well as painless. Whether or not they’re right, this ivory tower style of rule tends to not go over well with either the people or a populist-slanted opposition, which in Macedonia’s case has the monopoly on loud and public forms of deception, rather than the SDSM’s secretive, behind-the-scenes variety.

In the end, both sides believe it is a race against time- yet for precisely opposite reasons. For the government, failing to decentralize according to Brussels’ wishes, and making any sort of return to a nationalistic policy whatsoever will prove suicidal. For the opposition, however, continuing down the present decentralization/territorial division route is akin to committing hara-kiri. The ideological gap separating the two cannot be surmounted.

Nevertheless, the game is afoot and both sides are fighting for their lives. It has been suggested that Crvenkovski was threatened not to come to Brussels this week unless the decentralization was a lock. Whether or not this is true, now his whole government is beholden to EU and American wishes- and thus risk their own survival at home.

As for the opposition, it remains to be seen whether decentralization- the issue that was meant to unite them all- can actually do so, considering the Gruevski-Georgievski infighting, other signs of dissension in the ranks, and the unfortunate lack of a real leader.

All things considered, it seems that the only unqualified victors in all this are the Albanians, who after all don’t have to do anything at all to wind up on the right side of Solana’s bed. The beauty of it, for Ali Ahmeti, was that no one had to do a thing to get the Macedonians into such mutually exclusive but complementary Catch-22 situations.

So it seems that the same old story is continuing: that is, incessant political infighting on the Macedonian side, which has created a hole big enough to drive a truck through for their grateful ethnic peers. When they ignominiously manage to lose their own country- and there is now no question that they eventually will- the Macedonians will have no one to blame but themselves.