Balkanalysis.com

Holkeri Flees Kosovo, Just in Time

Harri Holkeri, the 4^th UNMIK chief to serve over the past 5 years in Kosovo, resigned after “only” 10 months on the job yesterday. He cited “health reasons” as the reason for his departure.

You can say that again.Like all of the foreign workers on the job now in Kosovo, Holkeri had the great misfortune to be serving at a time when long-simmering frustrations with international rule have boiled to the surface. Those joyous throngs of Albanians that received NATO in 1999 with open arms have been transformed into sullen, unpredictable mobs desiring only to see the “international company” leave. The March riots- and the stern international condemnation of them- have only irked even the non-extremists among the Albanians already fed up over the slow pace of the transition to self-rule, UNMIK financial corruption, as well as property, insurance and other disputes that cannot be settled so long as Kosovo’s legal status remains undetermined.

Deadpanning on Holkeri, the Guardian added that “…it is understood that his health problems are connected with the stress involved in running the administration [in] Kosovo.”

Point taken. Holkeri was, simply put, the wrong man in the wrong place at the wrong time. A former prime minister of the most taciturn, subdued nation in Europe (Finland), he lacked strong leadership or coordinative abilities. Unlike predecessor Michael Steiner- who would allegedly stop traffic when he wanted flowers sent across town to his Albanian girlfriend- he did not have the sort of flamboyant, commanding personality needed to keep the lid on things.

But the writing had been on the wall long before. Sane and sensible people have predicted since even before the 1999 bombing that the final result of any foreign occupation would be not unlike what is happening now.

Even in Steiner’s time, there were signs that Albanian militant extremists were resurfacing. The latter were taken by surprise, however, when following the Zvechan bridge bombing last spring, UNMIK declared the ANA a terrorist group. After years of having been coddled and appeased by the West, the spoiled Albanian extremists were offended. However, they mainly kept quiet and bided and their time.

Yet however unlucky Holkeri was, whoever succeeds him will have it much worse. There is strong evidence to suggest that the same Albanian extremists who masterminded the March riots are planning for Round 2. This time, it will target not just the Serbs but the internationals as well. “They will start with the expendable ones first,” said one jaded UN official there last month. “You know, the third-world contingents, the Africans and other people nobody cares about. They will try to avoid targeting the Americans, but if in the end it’s Americans who get in the way of their drive for independence, they will be attacked too.”

In the past, prime cheerleaders for the Albanian cause have been groups such as the ICG and IWPR. Their activities over the past few months are telling indicators of Kosovo’s changing atmosphere. The former released a long report denying that pan-Albanian separatism was really a threat to the region- suspiciously enough, less than a month before the March pogroms that saw non-Albanians ferociously targeted by rampaging mobs numbering total 51,000 people. (The so-called “Albanian National Union Front” however, disagreed strongly). They also released a report criticizing Holkeri for only pursuing “half-measures” (i.e., not the full independence they and the Albanians had been calling for). As for the IWPR, they recently published a laudatory report from Drenica, on the resurrection of the Kosovo Liberation Army amidst an upsurge of commemorative ceremonies and constructions meant to cast the slain “freedom fighters” of yesteryear as national heroes- and soon thereafter published another article denying the validity of the phenomenon. It seems that the powers-that-be are helping to pave the way for the next stage of the glorious Albanian liberation movement. After all, they have seen what the alternative looks like.

The point is that if bad news interests you- and it certainly enthralls the world media- then Kosovo is going to be an interesting place over the next few months. One seasoned observer told me that if not this year, “there will definitely be fighting to secure independence if that goal hasn’t been reached by 2005.” Of course, certain external events could have an effect: if Albanian-American lobbyists help elect John Kerry, his government will do its best to guarantee Kosovo independence politically. There may not be a need to fight.

After all, consider the words of the arrogant Richard Holbrooke, tipped to be Kerry’s secretary of state. According to the Guardian, this former “troubleshooter” of the Balkans claimed that Holkeri “…did not understand the situation in Kosovo.” For his part, Holkeri lashed out at his critics, stating that, “…someone needs to be the scapegoat” in the aftermath of March’s humanitarian disaster. He had a point. But it was quite clear that, all things considered, UNMIK could not make the guilty parties- the amorphous mobs- the scapegoat, as they rightfully should have been. And that too had been predicted.

The simple fact of the matter is that the internationals, no matter what they would like to do about protecting minorities and insuring human rights, are exceedingly vulnerable and in the grip of the gangster-politicians who control the province. The same Albanian thugs they empowered after the NATO campaign in 1999 now have full control. They own the hotels and apartments where the internationals stay. They own the restaurants, bars and cafйs where the peacekeepers congregate. They have a tight clan structure, fierce personal loyalties and a singular culture, all of which makes infiltrating their operations almost impossible.

This also means that the Albanians can count on a formidable intelligence network. Pristina is not Baghdad. There is no “Green Zone.” At any given moment, any international official- from a Holkeri on down- can be assassinated. Any building can be bombed. Even if the mujahedin (and they do exist) don’t get involved, the situation is still perilous for the peacekeepers. And they know it.

This is why they have kept the kid gloves on, and it is also why in the end the Albanians can call their bluff. “Standards before status” and all the other hopeful rhetoric- is just that. At the end of the day, actions speak louder than words. Force has always reigned pre-eminent in Kosovo, and it probably always will. The failure to see this in advance placed not only many thousands of civilians in literally mortal danger. It now also threatens the peacekeepers themselves.

Between now and November, there is plenty of time for things to escalate. If not now, 2005 will see the final push to remove the internationals- and after that, the Serbs and other minorities- from Kosovo. Luckily for Harri Holkeri, summer vacation came early this year.