Balkanalysis.com

Another one from the don’t-say-we-didn’t-warn-you file: a new and unknown Albanian militant organization, the so-called “Montenegro National Army,” has sprung up and issued its own list of demands, namely, de facto autonomy for Albanian-inhabited parts of the Adriatic republic.

It has been quite clear that such a thing would happen. All one had to do was follow the inexorable logic of the Balkans. Other parts of the world worry about nuclear mishaps or the atomic threat; here we have only the logic of atomization, which began with the break-up of the large republics of Yugoslavia. Following the Kosovo fiasco, and indeed closely linked with it, the time has apparently become ripe for more separatist mischief in Serbia’s junior partner republic. As things fall apart further, and America’s irrational frenzy to “punish” Serbia as much as possible (as if it posed a threat to anyone but itself) reaches its final stages, the chances for destabilizing the whole region increase. For once Montenegro “goes,” and whatever limited Albanian militant action begins, the province may also well be afflicted by as-yet unstated separatist rumblings in the Sandjak border area with Serbia, a small region connecting Bosnia and Kosovo and with a sizable Muslim population. As a direct result of Western intervention and meddling, the Balkans is reverting to the last days of the Ottoman Empire- when everything was up for grabs and separatism was in the air.

Montenegrin authorities, as well as Albanian parties, were quick to deny any knowledge of the group and to denounce its methods. So far, the biggest sign of life from this mysterious bunch has been a website, one very similar to other Albanian militant websites. Not that there might be any relation, of course.

As with all the post-2001 “liberation” armies, this one is still largely virtual. Most of the continuing terrorist attacks in Kosovo and Macedonia were small and disorganized, lending credence to official dismissals of the terrorists as “criminals” or “mentally unbalanced” individuals having no real popular support. The virtual, it is believed, is not so dangerous.

However, could it not be said that every Albanian militant movement would have foundered, without massive outside attention and assistance, from the 19th century until now? Is it not true that without the overt and covert help of the West, the KLA would have been crushed in 1999, leaving little chance for the situation to get out of control in 2001 in Macedonia? And even then, had the Great Powers not supported it, that the Macedonian authorities would have eliminated the group again? In this context, it can be claimed that every Albanian liberation movement has been a virtual creation, owing its successes largely to outside forces.

Yet even in the most limited and minor of cases- such as seems to be the case in Montenegro now- the virtual becomes more dangerous than the real, in its imminent and continual menace of what could happen, and what must therefore be averted at all costs, even at the cost of rewarding violence.

In this kind of terrorism, nothing actually has to happen. Even the threat of it causes a flurry of diplomatic concern, foaming at the mouth from the lobbyists, NGO negotiations and a beefed-up international community “presence.” In the same way that America is held hostage to fear of terror, even with the unrealized threat of a terrorist act, the Balkan states are held hostage to respecting the rights and wishes of people who would in the West be better off as guests on talk shows.

In this light, the fact that Albanian separatist leaders have set up an NGO to “explore” the possibilities of how federalization can be achieved best shows the cynical logic of a region become inured to the travesty of simulated results. In no case have the many Albanian separatist movements ever deviated from their accepted methods; however, far from proving an essential rightness or uniformity of cause, these common methods show the inherent paucity of any real cause, and the prevalence of the imitative. Thus street protests, complaints about alleged poisonings and the like have been used ad nauseum since Tito’s time, whereas the “human rights” and democracy bit has been slavishly followed since the Clinton years. Yet the separatists have failed to see that it is time for a new model to imitate, since no one actually believes in these rationales anymore.

This, perhaps, is their challenge: to find a new model (and fast) as the tide continues to turn against them in the West. Before the magic hour of opportunity ends, and the clock strikes midnight, the separatists have to achieve everything they want- or face never gaining it at all. It is a big challenge, but clearly these are the people best suited for it- after all, if the Balkans is moving backwards towards 1913 at the same rate they are moving forward from 1878, the meeting in the middle might have some dizzying results. The new century has barely begun; as for the old one, we are missing it already.